A two-year relative downtrend on Singapore equities accelerates in February

2015-02-18 09:44:33

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iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund [EWS] is currently on the same level as two years ago. However, during this period it recorded a cumulative abnormal loss of 30%, relative to S&P, considering beta value.


iShares Trust [EWSS] has decreased in its absolute value but its cumulative abnormal loss for two years has been similar. The MSCI has also relatively lost 12% for last six months and 4% since the beginning of February. iShares Trust's relative losses are even bigger.

The latest largest absolute decrease of both ETFs was recorded on January 28, when Singapore's central bank made a surprising decision of easing its monetary policy in order to "slow the appreciation of the Singapore dollar". In two hours SGD fell from $0.747 to $0.740. In fact, it was more boosting depreciation than stopping appreciation. Since July 2012 SGD had not been falling below $0.78 for two years and during July 2014 SGD was staying above $0.80. Since then Singapore dollar has been continuously decreasing, now fluctuating between $0.73 and $0.74.

A month earlier came a disappointing piece of Singapore's economic data of the four quarter, especially because of manufacturing and tourism downtrend. GDP grew 1.5% from a year earlier, compared with a 2.0% forecast, and 1.6% on-quarter, compared with expectations for 3.0%. Furthermore, it is now considered to be Singapore's "new normal". Such sentiments, together with decreasing currency, definitely do not help to stop a downtrend of Singapore ETFs.






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