Crude Oil - analysis

2015-06-08 09:36:48

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The OPEC meeting did not change anything – there will not be any cuts in output. 

The uncertainty around Russia was one of the main reasons why such decisions have been reached. What is more, the Chinese import today turned out worse than expected, 11% less than a year ago. The Global oil producers will have to struggle to win more markets, and the irony is that they will actually need to output more oil to do that.


A few days before the meeting the oil prices dropped around $5, we did have some rebound after the meeting and now the price is close to $59.


Fundamentals favor sellers, although some OPEC members think that the price should reach $75 by the end of this year, certainly they would like the price to be as high as possible. It is yet very probable that since there is still too much oil on the market and the demand do not seem to speed up, we might soon see the prices below $50.


In the long term view there is a 42% down move in one year (see the chart)


 

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